Models for Trypanosoma evansi (surra), its control and economic impact on small-hold livestock owners in the Philippines

Simple demographic and infectious disease models of buffaloes and other domestic hosts for animal trypanosomosis (surra) caused by Trypanosoma evansi were developed. The animal models contained deterministic and stochastic elements and were linked to simulate the benefit of control regimes for surra in village domestic animal populations in Mindanao, Philippines. The impact of the disease on host fertility and mortality were key factors in determining the economic losses and net-benefit from the control regimes. If using a high (99%) efficacy drug in surra-moderate to high risk areas, then treating all animals twice each year yielded low prevalence in 2 years; targeted treatment of clinically sick animals, constantly monitored (monthly), required 75% fewer treatments but took longer to reach a low prevalence than treating all animals twice each year. At high drug efficacy both of these treatment strategies increased the benefit over untreated animals by 81%. If drug efficacy declined then the benefit obtained from twice yearly treatment of all animals declined rapidly compared with regular monitoring and targeting treatment to clinically sick animals. The current control regimen applied in the Philippines of annual sero-testing for surra and only treating sero-positive animals provided the lowest net-benefit of all the control options simulated and would not be regarded as effective control. The total net-benefit from effective surra control for a typical village in a moderate/high risk area was 7.9 million pesos per annum (US $158,000). The value added to buffaloes, cattle, horses, goats/sheep and pigs as a result of this control was US $88, $84, $151, $7, $114 per animal/year, respectively.     

Individual-based model of spatio-temporal dynamics of mixed forest stands

This research presents the results of constructing and parameterizing an individual-based model of spatiotemporal dynamics of mixed forest stands. The model facilitates computerized experiments with forest stands having different combinations of species and age structures. These forest stands grow on temperate areas where light is the main system-forming factor that shapes and develops forest ecosystems. The model TEMFORM (TEMperate FORests Model) is developed with few equations and parameters, most of which can be estimated using standard forest inventory data. Parameterization of the model used the growth tables of a set of basic forest-forming species in Far East Russia. Simulation results of the development of the natural single- and mixed-species stands and the effects of different types of disturbances on the stand dynamics and compositions are presented.     

Non‐parametric habitat models with automatic interactions

Questions: Can a statistical model be designed to represent more directly the nature of organismal response to multiple interacting factors? Can multiplicative kernel smoothers be used for this purpose? What advantages does this approach have over more traditional habitat modelling methods? Methods: Non‐parametric multiplicative regression (NPMR) was developed from the premises that: the response variable has a minimum of zero and a physiologically‐determined maximum, species respond simultaneously to multiple ecological factors, the response to any one factor is conditioned by the values of other factors, and that if any of the factors is intolerable then the response is zero. Key features of NPMR are interactive effects of predictors, no need to specify an overall model form in advance, and built‐in controls on overfitting. The effectiveness of the method is demonstrated with simulated and real data sets. Results: Empirical and theoretical relationships of species response to multiple interacting predictors can be represented effectively by multiplicative kernel smoothers. NPMR allows us to abandon simplistic assumptions about overall model form, while embracing the ecological truism that habitat factors interact.     

TREES SIFTER 1.0: an approximate method to estimate the time to the most recent common ancestor of a sample of DNA sequences

trees sifter 1.0 implements an approximate method to estimate the time to the most recent common ancestor (TMRCA) of a set of DNA sequences, using population evolution modelling. In essence, the program simulates genealogies with a user‐defined model of coalescence of lineages, and then compares each simulated genealogy to the genealogy inferred from the real data, through two summary statistics: (i) the number of mutations on the genealogy (M_n), and (ii) the number of different sequence types (alleles) observed (K_n). The simulated genealogies are then submitted to a rejection algorithm that keeps only those that are the most likely to have generated the observed sequence data. At the end of the process, the accepted genealogies can be used to estimate the posterior probability distribution of the TMRCA.     

The influence of stream invertebrate composition at neighbouring sites on local assemblage composition

1. The composition of freshwater invertebrate assemblages at a location is determined by a range of physico‐chemical and biotic factors in the local environment, as well as larger‐scale spatial factors such as sources of recruits. We assessed the relative importance of the species composition of local neighbourhoods and proximal environmental factors on the composition of invertebrate assemblages. 2. Macroinvertebrate assemblages were sampled at 188 running‐water sites in the catchment of the River Rede, north‐east England. A total of 176 species were recorded. 3. Environmental data, in the form of 13 biotic and abiotic measurements that described stream physical structure, aquatic vegetation and water characteristics, were recorded for each site. Detrended correspondence analysis was then used to simplify nine of these stream environmental variables to create an index of stream structure. 4. The species composition of the invertebrate assemblages was related to the environmental variables, using an information theoretic approach. The impact of the species composition of neighbouring sites on each site was determined using Moran's I and autoregressive modelling techniques. 5. Species composition was primarily associated with water pH and stream structure. The importance of the species composition of neighbouring sites in determining local species assemblages differed markedly between taxa. The autoregressive component was low for Coleoptera, intermediate for Trichoptera and Plecoptera, and high for Ephemeroptera. 6. We hypothesise that the observed differences in the autoregressive component amongst these orders reflects variation in their dispersal abilities from neighbouring sites.     

A critical assessment of two species distribution models: a case study of the vervet monkey (Cercopithecus aethiops)

Aim Species distribution models are invaluable tools in biogeographical, ecological and applied biological research, but specific concerns have been raised in relation to different modelling techniques in terms of their validity. Here we compare two fundamentally different approaches to species distribution modelling, one based on simple occurrence data where the lack of an ecological framework has been criticized, and the other firmly based in socio‐ecological theory but requiring highly detailed behavioural information that is often limited in availability. Location (Sub‐Saharan) Africa. Methods We used two distinct techniques to predict the realized distribution of a model species, the vervet monkey (Cercopithecus aethiops Linnaeus, 1758). A maximum entropy model was produced taking 13 environmental variables and presence‐only data from 174 sites throughout Africa as input, with an additional 58 sites retained to test the model. A time‐budget model considering the same environmental variables was constructed from detailed behavioural data on 20 groups representing 14 populations, with presence‐only data from the remaining 218 sites reserved to test model predictions on vervet monkey occurrence. Both models were further validated against a reference species distribution map as drawn up by the African Mammals Databank. Results Both models performed well, with the time budget and maximum entropy algorithms correctly predicting vervet monkey presence at 78.4% and 91.4% of their respective test sites. Similarly, the time‐budget model correctly predicted presence and absence at 87.4% of map pixels against the reference distribution map, and the maximum entropy model achieved a success rate of 81.8%. Finally, there was a high level of agreement (81.6%) between the presence–absence maps produced by the two models, and the environmental variables identified as most strongly driving vervet monkey distribution were the same in both models. Main conclusions The time‐budget and maximum entropy models produced accurate and remarkably similar species distribution maps, despite fundamental differences in their conceptual and methodological approaches. Such strong convergence not only provides support for the credibility of current results, but also relieves concerns about the validity of the two modelling approaches.     

Kinetics of Oxygen Release from ORC

Oxygen release compounds (ORC) are one possibility to enhance aerobic degradation in contaminated aquifers. However, some applications have been reported where oxygen concentrations did not meet expectations, this was attributed to ground water composition, e.g., high pH. Column experiments have been performed and the measurements were interpreted using a numerical model to investigate oxygen release kinetics from ORC in more detail. Because the zero-order rate law recommended by the manufacturer did not reflect the measurements, a more complex kinetic scheme was developed. The simulations show a minor influence of inorganic ground water constituents on oxygen release from ORC in the columns due to buffering by mineral precipitation, but an enhanced oxygen release if aerobic degradation takes place. If ORC is applied as socks, the impact of inorganic ground water composition increases compared to the application in column experiments. A simple quadratic equation is provided to estimate oxygen release rate from the buffer capacity of the ground water versus increasing pH—a parameter easily determinable in the laboratory. For slightly mineralized waters with high pH, this equation forecasts decreased oxygen release, but no total inhibition of oxygen release.     

Sizes of granular vesicles in the rat median eminence,with special reference to the zona granulosa

Summary A quantitative evaluation has been made of the sizes of neuronal granular vesicles (GV) in different (sub-)zones of the rat median eminence. On the basis of the frequency distribution of the mean sizes of the GV in the individual nerve profiles, at least 4 tentative categories of nerve profiles may be distinguished. However, available data do not permit characterization of nerve fibre categories in terms of neurohormone and/or neurotransmitter storage. From dorsal to ventral the palisade zone shows a decrease in mean size of GV; furthermore, the relative number of nerve profiles characterized by small GV (mean size smaller than 112 nm) increases. In contrast, the GV in the zona granulosa, that part of the external zone of the median eminence ventral to the palisade zone, are of relatively large size. Qualitative observations indicate that the zona granulosa may be regarded as an area for both storage and release of biologically active substances. We are grateful to Mrs. R.M.Y. Hartsteen for technical assistance, to Miss P.C. Delfos and Mr. W. van den Oudenalder for photographic assistance and to Prof. J. Moll for helpful criticism.